Why Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine
Reports of an impending US-Russia presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump announced he planned to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump informed the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs White House without results
The frequently changing summit is just the latest development in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.
During a speech in the North African country last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
However, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the key to unlocking a deal was Israel's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided Trump bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president gained from a history of siding with Israel dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has warned to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to advance the war any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may actually be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Recently, as news emerged that the White House was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then touted the potential meeting in Budapest.
The next day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he said.
However the Ukrainian leader later made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.
So, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately urging Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – even land Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has finally settled on advocating a truce along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail last year, Trump promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since discarded that commitment, saying that ending the hostilities is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when both parties desires, or is able to, give up the fight.